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Angus Trim




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PostPosted: Tue 27 Jul, 2004 9:03 am    Post subject: Steel Prices etc         Reply with quote

Its been noted that A&A has raised there prices again..... well sometime early next year AT will do so again too......

Earlier this year, mild steel prices increased drastically, with the steel in the higher carbon ranges to follow. The supplier I get my steel from warehouse' a great deal of steel, so I wasn't effected by the increases until about four weeks ago, and then it was a 30% increase. The outside salesman stopped by this last week, and the conversation veered towards the steel market, and I was told to expect about that much more increase in the next few months.

Other costs have likewise gone up, and it takes more time than it did a year ago...

I'm going to try and hold prices until next year, but as the costs add up, there may be no choice sooner..............

Auld Dawg

swords are fun
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Robert Zamoida




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PostPosted: Tue 27 Jul, 2004 5:35 pm    Post subject:         Reply with quote

Oh wow. Is this a normal trend in steel prices or is something affecting the market?
Rob Zamoida
"When your life is on the line, you want to make use of all your tools. No warrior should be willing to die with his swords at his sides, without having made use of his tools."
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Steve Fabert





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PostPosted: Tue 27 Jul, 2004 6:23 pm    Post subject:         Reply with quote

Robert Zamoida wrote:
Is this a normal trend in steel prices or is something affecting the market?


The "something" affecting the market is the spread of industrialization in China. Here's the latest statement from U.S. Steel on prices:

"We expect continued strong profitability through year-end resulting from robust worldwide steel pricing and tight supplies, as the world economy continues to recover and as demand from developing countries, especially China, remains at very high levels," said Thomas Usher, chairman and chief executive.

Looks like there is no reason to expect steel prices to drop in the near future, unless there's a renewed worldwide recession
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Markus Haider




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PostPosted: Wed 28 Jul, 2004 10:17 am    Post subject:         Reply with quote

raw materials and energy had a steep price increase over the last year (up to 200 % for some stuff) over the whole board thanks to the industrial rise of China (isn't that nice - not only our workplaces go over there, also everything gets more expensive too because of it).
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Steve Fabert





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PostPosted: Wed 28 Jul, 2004 10:23 am    Post subject:         Reply with quote

Industrial demand in China is probably also the reason that oil hit $43 a barrel today. Get used to it.
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David Lannon




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PostPosted: Wed 28 Jul, 2004 3:59 pm    Post subject: Steel         Reply with quote

I know steel is going up. I just purchased 30 ft. of electrical conduit and it has gone up 300% since a year ago!!! So it is not just swords.

Of course that is why we need those Titanium blades Laughing Out Loud

Cheers
Dave

Good, Bad, I'm the guy with the gun!!!!
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Robert W. Betten




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PostPosted: Wed 28 Jul, 2004 8:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Steel         Reply with quote

David Lannon wrote:
Of course that is why we need those Titanium blades Laughing Out Loud


Or start producing more quality bronze swords Wink

I knew steel prices were going up, here they are probably twice the price of what you guys pay there in some places...but I never new they'd go up this much. Guess this means my job needs to increase my wages to cover the world wide sword inflation Wink (yeah they'll really go for that)...

Good time to jump in and buy an atrim eh? Razz

*!*
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them. Buildings burn, people die, but real
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Zach Stambaugh





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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 12:05 am    Post subject: info         Reply with quote

a coupla months ago I was working a project to scrap out a 220 foot aluminum ship to take advantage of metals prices. china wants a lot. bad news: they are particularly interested in military metals. they will now have the electrical capacity for large scale production of everything, b/c of the Yangtse Dam's completion.

China's gonna be The superpower for the next 40 years.

ps on a sidenote you might find the ship i was destroying to be interesting. it was a 1960s Navy ASW experiment: a 200=+ foot ship that went about 90 miles an hour. there is tons of bandwidth devoted to it. Do a google search on "plainview+ hydrofoil"



 Attachment: 48.22 KB
plainv1.jpg


It is better to be over careful a hundred times than dead once. --- Mark Twain (give or take a slight misquote)
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Randal Graham
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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 6:25 am    Post subject: silver lining         Reply with quote

Steel is up and it's hurting, no two ways about it.

However, Although the upswing in China's economy is the main cause, there is a wierd side-benifit, which is too rarely the case.
At least two iron mines in the Midwest have been re-opened, and Mills all over the continent have been adding shifts, a friend of mine in Ontario who works at a place that supplies alloying elements to the industry has added thier 3rd shift back to the program and are calling hundreds of workers back to the floor.

Maybe with some luck even the steel valley will fire up some mothballed lines and get some iron rolling.

R.H.Graham
Swordsmith
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Steve Fabert





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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 6:40 am    Post subject: Re: silver lining         Reply with quote

Randal Graham wrote:

Maybe with some luck even the steel valley will fire up some mothballed lines and get some iron rolling.


If demand and world prices stay high, as they should, we may see a revival of some of the American steel mills. Since the price of delivered steel is significantly affected by shipping costs, this could be good news to buyers who are near the steel mills. The rest of us just get to live with the price hikes, or start smelting iron the way it was done in the middle ages.
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Craig Johnson
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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 7:02 am    Post subject: Odd enough         Reply with quote

Had a visit from my steel rep yesterday. He has been to China twice in the last few years. He said picture the US in late 40's early 50's with capacity, raw material and demand, then add on the fact that wages are about .40 to 1.00 US a day in some areas. He thinks where in for a bumpy ride to say the least.

In our neck of the planet. He said mills and mines are comming back on but that the demand from overseas is for the general types and many mills are specializing in high volume of one or two types of steel. The other types will get made when and if they feel like or someone puts out for a special order. He thinks some boutique steels are probably running off the current supply and after that it may well be gone.

The Chinese are not only buying alot but are also the largest steel producer in the world at the moment. wait till we are arguing over what imported Chinese steel is the best to buy as domestic supplies are gone!

Fun huh

Craig
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Nate C.




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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 8:42 am    Post subject:         Reply with quote

Does this sound like the Japanese Ford story to anyone else? Worried
Nate C.

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Angus Trim




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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 10:16 am    Post subject: Re: Odd enough         Reply with quote

Craig Johnson wrote:
He thinks some boutique steels are probably running off the current supply and after that it may well be gone.
Craig


It was Monday that the steel rep stopped here, and we had a similar conversation. The more exotic tool steels, and steels used infrequently by industry just might fade away due to lack of profitability in making them.

We discussed some of the more popular sword steels, and its likely that things like 5160 will persist since its used in the auto industry. Same with 6150. Some of the 10xx and the kooler tool steels may be in trouble.......

The sword industry will probably survive, but we're all likely to have to adjust some...........

Auld Dawg

swords are fun
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Zach Stambaugh





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PostPosted: Thu 29 Jul, 2004 11:52 pm    Post subject: china         Reply with quote

someone mentioned that china is currently the biggest producer. they are buying up pre-made steel and scrap so they can rapidly industrialize, so that they can make their own steel and won't need to buy any more from us.

those american mills that opened will shut right back down. eight or ten month's ago they were crying for a federal subsidy to bail them out. I think they eventually got it too.

this doesn't just hit swords. building contractors are stockpiling plumbing wiring ,nails and bracketry against rapidly rising costs. this is dramatically increasing building costs in the US.

when will swordmakers develop their own steel? ( apart from the pricey pattern welders)

It is better to be over careful a hundred times than dead once. --- Mark Twain (give or take a slight misquote)
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Randal Graham
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PostPosted: Sun 01 Aug, 2004 9:48 am    Post subject:         Reply with quote

when will swordmakers develop their own steel?
Quote:


Now, taking place already. Initially it was more of a "something ya just gotta do once" thing, the discussions lately have been a lot more serious, from traditional smelting of steels of all kinds from European to Asian, to actually doing really serious small-scale melts of modern-type tools steels.
The Steel situation is driving it in part, for sure.

I got a furnace running already to do crucible-melts, Ric Furrer has been producing steels of all kinds for some time now, there is a group of us doing a lot of work with Tamahagane up in the woods in Mn, I'm building a Euro-style set-up in my yard at home, and other guys, like Louis Mills, have been making thier own steel for awhile now.
This Monday and tuesday I'm going to be talking about the possibility of an induction furnace with some guys too... although thats getting a lot more high-test than maybe we can swing.
You never know though, I mean sometime, it doesn't seem like that big of a deal, I can still get the stuff I use... but there is that voice in the background saying " yeah but for how long?"

Yeah, mills cranking up and folks going back to work... sounds nice, wishfull thinking on my part likely.

R.H.Graham
Swordsmith
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