I tried three different attacks at 50% power and then close to 100%. I was wearing mail sleeves and steel hourglass gauntlets (pictured) to give a bit more weight and simulate an armored combat. I tried sottani (underhanded stab, forehand grip), roversi (downward blow from left, ice pick grip), and mandritti (downward blow from right, icepick grip). I am a relatively strong guy with I would say fair technique.
Sottani: 50% power did no visible damage. 100% partially cut into two rings a bit and did penetrate the garment beneath, but only just barely. Superficial wound at best.
Roversi: 50% power cut into rings a bit and resulted in some deformation. 100% cut deeply into rings and resulted in more deformation and close to breaking a ring on a couple of attempts, but fell short. Did penetrate garment, but would result in only superficial wounds again.
Mandritti: I managed to break a solid ring! And pop a rivet on one next to it. One of the pictures shows how much I was able to push the dagger through after the fact, as the cold steel buckler would not allow penetration. I think this could have been a "fight ender" potentially if the one stabbing was also grappling and in an advantageous position. Could result in some pretty good bleeding if in the right spot. Other hard attempts caused a good amount of ring deformation and cutting deeply into rings, but I only managed to break through the one.
The dagger is completely fine, perhaps slight blunting/very slight rolling on the tip, but I did several very hard strikes. If you look closely, the leathers on the thumb of my gauntlet did not fare as well ;) This wasn't super scientific, but showed me that it is no easy task getting through mail with a dagger. Certainly possible, and two combatants colliding in armor could probably generate more force, but not easy. I feel like it would still take a certain amount of luck with a dagger, i.e. hitting a spot that perhaps the rivet or ring just wasn't done as well or a spot that has been previously compromised. No hard conclusions, but it was enlightening for me! I do have video if anyone wants to see but it was super windy and cold so I was having a tough time recording properly.
Thanks to Tod for the great and affordable dagger. Just might have to get myself a rondel as well to compare!

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