Hi everyone
The FEM work is progressing, but not there yet.
Bartek hit the nail on the head - my goal with this is to try to find out what improvements are possible, because although I know there are limits, I don't know what they are. So its pointless for me to make any claims without trying to at least get a better idea what the limits are. If there are any surprisingly well performing possibilities, we can check for matches any extant historical crossbows. And also, when I have the geometric information on a given historical crossbow (which some forumites have kindly PMed me to help with - thanks!), I can try to model its performance and see how well I think it will do, given a range of possible input parameters. As I said, forwards and backwards, and hope they meet in the middle...
So, since the question of metallurgy is going to come up again with the FEA, I'm going to give one last potted description of what I know about the metallurgy of iron-carbon alloys.
I think most people here already know something about the different phases of iron-carbon compounds present at different temperatures and at different temperatures and carbon concentrations. This is why we can quench-harden swords and why we need to temper them. There are actually only a small number of phases, and fewer still that are present at room temperature: ferrite and cementite (martensite is only a quasi-stable phase, and in swords, the tempering process actually reduces it to a combination of ferrite and cementite with a microstructure that has better mechanical properties for blades). Ferrite is relatively soft, while cementite is hard and brittle. Pearlite, tempered martensite, bainite and even wootz all owe their properties primarily to the way the smaller quantity of hard cementite is distributed through the ferrite (the microstructure).
Now the material properties of pure ferrite and pure cementite (Fe3C chemically speaking) can both be determined very accurately based on the interatomic bonds in their respective crystal structures. The property of any of the various combinations and microstructures of these two phases is therefore some weighted average of the two. But the modulus of elasticity can't exceed that of the cementite. In the case of wootz, the very hard cementite takes the form of thin rods on a nano-scale, which occur in large numbers because (in part) there is an unusually high percentage carbon than is usually the case. This makes it strong for loosely similar reasons that fiberglass-resin or carbon fiber-resin composites are strong, as far as I understand (Bainite is notionally similar but the microstructure is on a much larger scale and its properties less dramatic, though still good). I found a value of 400GPa for cementite in one publication, but would like to look further to check it. Pure cementite is also far too brittle to use for a bow that will flex, as far as I know. It is actually probably more appropriate to refer to it as a ceramic in its pure form, namely iron carbide. Also bear in mind that the amount of cementite present is limited by the ratio of carbon to iron (even in wootz or cast iron it is only of the order of 2-3%) so there will always be much less cementite than ferrite, therefore the material properties will tend more or less towards that. Of course, other alloying elements (vanadium, chomium, nickle, nitrogen, and many others) will "nudge" the properties of steel this way or that. But the dominant feature is always the strength of the bonds between the iron atoms.That is the long version of the reason why I don't think we are going to see vastly different elasticic properties in medieval steel. Ductility is not relevant because that implies that the bow lath would stay permanently deformed, rendering it useless. For those who know metallurgy better than me, please correct me as necessary. For those who want to know more or want to check me, my primary source is "Callister's Materials Science and Engineering", the handbook that I used for my udergrad material science course, supplemented by various bits of literature such as the wootz paper I mentioned before, and this rather interesting paper made available by NIST
https://www.nist.gov/publications/elastic-constants-and-internal-friction-martensitic-steel-ferritic-pearlitic-steel-and
And for those who can't get the textbook, there's a nice phase diagram for the iron-carbon system on the website of the Technical University of Kiel, which is the core of the thing:
[url]
https://www.tf.uni-kiel.de/matwis/amat/iss/kap_6/illustr/s6_1_2.html [/url
Nonetheless, I do intend to test a wide range of possible moduli of elasticity, which will exceed beyond what I think is the "known range" of properties. Because I could be wrong, and there might be some hitherto unknown quirk of metallurgy. I certainly don't claim to know how absolutely element will affect steel when introduced into the alloy. Frankly I was surprised it was measured as high as 250GPa in a wootz sample. But I stick by my claim that there is
some definite physical limit based on the atomic structure of metal alloys composed mostly of iron. We are almost certainly not easily going to see steel with a modulus of elasticity of double or half the generally accepted value of about 210 GPa. This is a falsifiable claim, and as such, if a counter-example is available, I will be happy to correct or recant it in the light of the new evidence. It then becomes a matter of checking whether the alloy involved may be found in any extant steel crossbow laths. We can never prove definitely that the hypothetical alloy was never used as we cannot test every crossbow ever made, but we can disprove the claim by finding even a single counter-example. And if we don't find any, we can at least say that to the best of our knowledge, it was not used in any extant examples. Then if we find an example, we can thoroughly investigate whether it will have a positive or negative effect on a crossbow lath - we can claim there is no crossbow design which will benefit from it, then try to prove this statement wrong. And so on...
As for my ballistics calculations being crude: Well, they are simple, certainly, but not crude in the sense that they are not fit for purpose. My results match the measured behaviour of an arrow shot from Tod's Lockdown Longbow and 960lb crossbow to within a few percent. They also match the large body of available data for olympic javelin-throwers and javelin guns and at least one paper where javelin drag force was measured directly to a good degree of accuracy. Late last night, as a final check, I applied data for a shell from 16-inch british naval gun such as was used on the HMS Nelson or Rodney in WWII, and I was able to predict the maximum range to within 15% (a larger margin of error, but certainly not terrible considering the much greater uncertainties involved). These sorts of ballistics calculations are inherently simple; they were pioneered and largely solved in 1537 by the brilliant self-taught mathematician Niccolò Fontana Tartaglia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Fontana_Tartaglia
He sounds like a fascinating character, and deserves to be far more famous than he is. His work was vital to Gallileo's study of falling objects, and was apparently accurate enough to be used by artillerymen 200 years later. It was not quite as accurate as Gallileo's work, of course, and still less than Newton's (whom I used) but it was very close (one of the great things about this exercise is how much I am learning along the way). Tartaglia's model and its long subsequent practical use demonstrates that even an inaccurate model is still very useful if the degree of error is small and quantified. By analogy, a gun or crossbow does not have to be perfectly accurate to hit a target, it just has to have some ammo(data), a small enough spread (an acceptably small degree of inaccuracy) and a shooter who knows his weapon...
Of course, as I said in the initial post, I can in no way claim that my hypothetical scenario with a tailwind was the truth behind the Payne-Gallwey's famous shot. It is purely speculation, but it is based on solid physics and demonstrates one alternative possibility (and also illustrates that we can't neglect the effects of air resistance, wind and arrow streamlining when discussing crossbow ranges). To claim more than that would be unscientific, though, so I don't and didn't. Its also not based on Tod's or Adreas Bicher's measurements or work; I only used those to check that my calculations were reliable, ie. that i hadn't made a programming error. It is based on the dynamics of a projectile from first principles.
Jean, please do write that paper. I may disagree with the way in which you reach some of your conclusions as far as I understand that now, but I am also painfully aware that I don't have all the data that you do on which to base your ideas. I feel that if I read a step-by-step logical account of how found your information and reached your conclusions, I'd quite possibly be more able to see what you see. And even if I still disagree with some of your conclusions afterwards, the historical data you have access to is fascinating and very valuable to all researchers of this topic, and that alone would already be a valuable contribution.
Andrew